See this paper for detailed research results on Canada's loons.
The abstract:
Reproductive success of Common Loons (Gavia immer) is a powerful
indicator of aquatic ecosystem health, especially in relation to mercury
and acid precipitation. We examined relationships between Common Loon
reproductive success and longitude, year, lake area, and pH across
southern Canada using data collected from 1992 to 2010 by participants
in Bird Studies Canada’s Canadian Lakes Loon Survey. Our goal was to
indirectly describe the health of lakes in southern Canada with respect
to mercury and acid precipitation. The overall model-predicted number of
six-week-old young per pair per year was 0.59 (95% confidence limits:
0.56–0.62). Six-week-old young per pair per year decreased by 0.19 from
west-to-east (−127° to −52° longitude), decreased by 0.14 between 1992
and 2010, increased by 0.22 as lake area increased from 10 to 3000 ha,
and increased by 0.43 as acidity decreased from pH 5 to 9. The
relationships were likely linked to acid- and temperature-mediated
exposure to methylmercury and/or acid-induced reductions in forage fish.
The temporal decrease was unexpectedly steeper in southwestern than in
southeastern Canada. Projections suggested that reproductive success
across southern Canada may not drop below the demographic source-sink
threshold until ~2016 (range: 2009-2029). Reproductive success on pH 6.0
lakes, however, may have passed below the source-sink threshold as
early as ~2001 (1995-2009), whereas reproductive success on pH 8.0 lakes
may not pass below the threshold until ~2034 (2019-2062). There were
~0.1 more six-week-old young per pair per year on 2500 ha lakes than on
20 ha lakes. Reproductive success crossed below the source-sink
threshold on 20 ha lakes at pH 6.4 (5.8–7.1) and on 2500 ha lakes at pH
5.5 (4.1–6.6). Our results show that citizen science is powerful for
monitoring ecosystem health and indirectly support further action to
abate emissions of mercury and the harmful components of acid
precipitation throughout North America and globally.
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